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Oil and Gold Update

Friday’s 3% drop in crude oil definitively broke below $50/barrel with open interest for WTI (as reported in the COT Report) at all time highs. Headlines cite lessening concerns regarding Tropical Storm Nate and oversupply issues. Volatility remains subdued though ahead of OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report on Weds followed by the IEA’s report on Thurs.

The WTI COT Report also shows that Producers – who have a natural bias to be short – haven’t been net short this little since Jan 2015 (AKA their net position, while still short, is the longest it’s been in awhile). In Brent, the Money Mangers’ net position is the shortest it’s been in our data’s history (dating back to 2008).

Funny trade in gold on Friday as well – expiring over a year from now the following trade was blocked – all new positioning:

– 7,500 Dec18 2000 calls @ 3
– 7,500 Dec18 2600 calls @ 0.15
– 15,000 Dec18 3000 calls @ 0.1

The sizes make it look like a call spread stupid (the 2000-3000 call spread WITH the 2600-3000 call spread) for when the SHTF – but that far out both in strike and expiry, who knows.